Israel Adesanya – TKO Round 2/4 (Cannonier’s mental toughness is astounding, he dug his way out of deep holes against Derek Brunson (to a TKO victory) and Robert Whittaker (to a close loss). Worryingly, Cannonier often misses strikes that aren’t fired down the pipe as a result of his head-down forward pressure or high-guard defence. Brunson dropped Cannonier with a right hook as the latter ploughed forward in a straight line, while Whittaker manoeuvred Cannonier onto a head kick off the back of a simple 1-2. Adesanya is a far more wily tactician on the feet and is primed to use his height and reach advantage to set traps from distance. That isn’t to write off Cannonier. The Killa Gorilla is one of the hardest-hitting Middleweights. Adesanya showed discomfort after being clipped by Yoel Romero early, forcing the fight to descend into a dull chess match. Although Cannonier lacks the wrestling chops to create doubt in Adesanya’s mind, he can certainly match the Kiwi in a leg-kicking affair. Unfortunately for the contender, Adesanya just seems built to handle this match-up with ease)
Alexander Volkanovski – Decision (As seen in the first fight, Volk’s chipping leg kicks disrupted Holloway’s jab – the foundational weapon that the Hawaiian uses to build combination. Add in the inside trips and brief exchanges in the clinch, and it explains just how Volkanovski’s relentless output was able to throw Holloway off rhythm. Volkanovski will have to factor in Holloway’s greater kicking output in the second affair. Catching the body kicks before leading with his sharp lead hook could be enough to punish. Alternatively, Volk could once again press an unbalanced Holloway to the cage and shave away control time. On the other hand, Holloway’s success in their second affair largely stemmed from Holloway capturing the early rounds. Once Volk knew he was chasing the fight in the championship rounds, the Aussie was forced to take risks and throw extended combinations in the pocket. This in turn played into Holloway’s natural game, reactively slipping and returning with hard uppercuts. As a fighter that excels with a steady pace and settling into a rhythm, Holloway must force Volkanovski to feel as though he is chasing the fight. Seeing Yair breaking Blessed’s pace, on the feet no less, is a red flag that leaves me siding fractionally with the champion)
Sean Strickland – Submission Round 3 (This is the perfect match-up for the long-time kickboxer. Defensively, Strickland lacks the speed to avoid danger for a full fifteen minutes against Pereira’s heavy strikes. Win this bout and you can bet the house that Dana fast-tracks Pereira to a title shot grudge bout against Israel Adesanya. Still, Pereira has three chances at the start of each round to find the off-switch, otherwise, it’ll be an exhausting night. Uriah Hall is hardly a TDD savant, but Strickland managed to outwrestle the veteran with ease. If there’s anything that Strickland has shown since his return to the octagon, it is that he is a consummate game planner)
Sean O’Malley – Decision (Against my better judgement, I’m backing O’Malley out-striking a very hittable, ageing Pedro Munhoz. Huge doubts have to be placed on O’Malley’s biscuit legs holding up fifteen minutes, a prime target for Munhoz’s powerful leg kicks. Still, it just feels as though O’Malley is meeting Munhoz at a perfect athletic crossroads. Sugar has already proven his ability to operate shrewdly on the outside against the much lesser pressure threat of Kris Moutinho)
Robbie Lawler – Decision (In a match-up to find out who is the most washed, there isn’t much to separate the two. Lawler’s losing streak was snapped against an out-of-shape Nick Diaz, but at least it provided some sort of indication of this bout. Barberena will similarly focus on pushing out a high offensive volume, with Lawler’s increased emphasis on the body likely to slow Bam Bam. Robbie is still gun-shy in his twilight, yet Barberena has physically slowed after countless wars, this should be a heart-breaking affair)
Brad Riddell – Decision (Jalin Turner looks a different beast from his UFC debut. Far more confident in his freakish 6’3″ frame, Turner may be a little right-hand dominant yet his kicks off the lead leg are brutally effective. Intercepting knees and refined clinch striking are also welcome additions to the Tarantula’s arsenal. Still, Brad Riddell is a proven entity against quality opposition. Although Fiziev cracked the Kiwi’s chin, it is too early to doubt the slick counter-punchers durability. Turner’s TDD and gas tank remain red flags until proven otherwise)
Ian Garry – TKO Round 2 (Green isn’t a polished boxer, but his volume is very impressive. Constantly bouncing and pumping his jab, it’ll be a double-edged sword against Garry. On the one hand, Green will regularly walk himself onto Garry’s long counters. On the other, Green will set a furious pace that has wilted many fighters before. If, as expected, Green cannot buy some time on the ground – his inability to enter from different angles will be punished)
Jim Miller – TKO Round 1 (For the past few years now, Miller has continued to stun prospects with incomplete skillsets. A-10 has a canny knack for finding an opponent’s back and is a lethal punisher once latched on. Cowboy has never been a fast starter, but he is increasingly incapable of building momentum. Miller, like Lauzon, is an early-round threat that continues to carry power, indicating that Cerrone could well be iced in the first round for the third time in six fights)
Andre Muniz – Submission Round 1 (Muniz’s hands are sluggish and telegraphed, but his sole intent is to take the fight to the ground. Once on the mat, Muniz wastes no time chasing speculative submissions. This does allow opponents to return to their feet, but Hall can be broken through extended grappling exchanges. Prime Time remains a threatening counter-striker and considering Muniz’s telegraphed takedowns, there is a strong potential of the Brazilian getting chinned. It’s too difficult to tell what version of Hall will rock up on Saturday, to be safely back him, however)
Maycee Barber – Decision (Eye thrives when she is the more physically imposing fighter, which will be met with equal gusto by Maycee Barber. Barber isn’t the glittering prospect that the UFC first thought, but The Future can get by on her physicality and volume as she fleshes out her skillset. Eye is the more proven entity, yet as a form fighter, this does have all the trimmings of a sad retirement fight)
Brad Tavares – Decision (Durable, difficult to takedown and relatively slick defensively, Tavares has the tools to take this late and punish a tiring Du Plessis during one of his wild flurries. Du Plessis at times is uncontrolled with his aggression and is begging to be countered. To be fair to the Saffer, icing Trevin Giles with ease has gone some way to suggesting his style can carry him up the ladder)
Julija Stoliarenko – Decision (A one-trick pony, Stoliarenko is very much a ‘secure armbar or die’ type of fighter. Clark by decision is the safe call but I’m opting for Stoliarenko meme magic. The Lithuanian’s boxing looked far improved in her last outing against Alexis Davis, and you simply cannot write off Clark walking head-first (or arm-first, in this instance) into her opponent’s preferred fight)
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