Ultimate Frisbee Tips
Week 8 Picks:
Boston -3 -110 – Boston continues to be a rollercoaster of a team, going 0-2 their last active weekend after blowing out Toronto by double digits the game before that. In total, Boston is 0-4 on the road and 2-1 at home, but I think the split is less about home vs away and more about rosters. At full strength Boston is one of the scarier teams in the division but they’ve had so many games missing pieces. This weekend they are mostly full-strength. They are missing one of their stud receivers in Cable, but they’ll have their other stud receiver in Johnson. Johnson has only played two games for the Glory this year but they were both victories. Boston won’t have one of their defensive stars Wariner but will have McCann. Meanwhile, Ottawa is mostly full-strength. They’ll miss Renaud cutting downfield but get back their best player Boucher after a few weeks off. Ottawa’s only win this season came against Boston in their first game when Boston was missing several stars. I don’t love this line but I think Boston will win by a few goals and cover.
Toronto +5.5 -120 – Toronto is officially the most unpredictable team in the league. At least with Boston their unpredictability derives from their roster status so you can get a sense for how they might perform based on their active rosters. Toronto has been nearly full-strength each week but their results have been all over the map. They were godawful against New York, scoring just 8 goals in one meeting and allowing 30+ in another. But then against DC they nearly came away with an upset and this past weekend upset a Montreal team who they lost by seven goals to in their first meeting. Part of this can likely be attributed to their youth and relative inexperience in the league; they had one of the most departures of any team in the offseason. For Friday, it sets up a very interesting matchup against Philly who is firing on all cylinders right now. Philly won’t have one of their best handlers in Thorne but Little should be making his debut either as a receiver or defender. I think with both teams coming off exciting wins it could be pretty close and a sprinkle on the ML +600 isn’t the worst idea.
Austin +2 -155 – This is an exciting matchup as it features two teams from different divisions. Cross-division play in the AUDL is a bit rarer than in other leagues; maybe a half dozen cross-division games occur each season. Austin is coming off a bye but before that they upset defending league champs Carolina. Granted, Carolina had just played in Dallas the night before and there was a bit of officiating controversy to the ending that plagued Carolina. Nonetheless, that’s a statement win for a program surging upward like Austin and they’ll take that confidence into the Central division this weekend. Chicago and Carolina played last season in the championship semifinals where Carolina eked out a one-goal win late. Chicago lost a few pieces in the offseason but is still a formidable team. Therefore, it’s fair to peg Chicago as the favorite for this game, but I think it will be close. Austin is getting 6’6” Walter back who is a force on defense. Chicago is getting back Team USA member Goff back after a week off but won’t have Arters on their offensive line. Chicago nearly imploded against Madison last weekend and the game came down to the wire as a result. I’m not sure if Austin will win here but I think it will be very close so I like getting the points. Consider a half unit at most on ML +165.
Oakland +3.5 -155 – This is a gorgeous opportunity for Oakland to get their first win against a Seattle team who has looked strong in recent weeks but will be missing several stars in their road trip to California. Seattle won’t have veterans Simon or Rehder, workhorse Swanson, or flashy young stars-in-the-making Miller, Raunig, or Venneri. Their offensive line also takes a hit against Oakland, with Zhao not playing until Saturday against Colorado. Seattle will have experienced cutter Steen, but he’ll be making his season debut so could be some rust. Oakland won’t have their star receiver in Laurence, and will also miss a couple of veteran players Stearns and Earley, but other than that they should have a solid roster. Norden did Norden things last week scoring 10 assists, and Crawford has been an offensive machine in the couple games he’s played. Lung should be active as well after a week off and he has quietly been a terrific thrower. Oakland is undoubtedly hungry to get their first win and likely smells blood in the water against this thinner Seattle team, who even at full strength wouldn’t carry THAT much of a gap over Oakland. I like Oakland to cover here and think the ML +320 could be worth a half unit.
Colorado -6 -145 – Seattle has been a resilient team in the league this year but this is a bad spot for them. They’ll have played Oakland the night before in likely a close battle. Now they travel to division leader Colorado who yet again seem to be at near full-strength. They’ll have less time for rest as it will be a 4:00 PM local game, and they’ll have to battle a stark elevation change against a fresh Colorado team. Colorado will also likely be putting on a show with the women’s league having a showcase game at the same stadium right after the AUDL game finishes up. Seattle will get a couple of decent offensive reinforcements so I don’t love this line but I think it will hit.
Pittsburgh/Detroit o37.5 -110 – Only one Detroit game has gone under 40 goals this season and it was a rainy, windy mess of a game early in the season. Games with Detroit tend to be blowouts which usually hurts the over but Detroit’s defense is so bad that the victor pushes into the high 20s or low 30s to drive the total up. Offensively Detroit has also been able to score 18+ goals in every game this season except one. While I’m not sure that particular trend will continue, I do think Pittsburgh should have little difficulty scoring and this total should hit the 40s at least.
New York -9.5 -125 – Gargantuan lines scare me but New York has been producing one of the most dominant seasons in league history, and get a road-tripping Ottawa team the day after playing Boston, AND missing their best player in Boucher. The previous meeting between the two was a 30-18 shellacking by New York and that was in Ottawa and on the second day of a road trip for New York. Three of New York’s 8-0 record victories have been double digit blowouts, and none of the other wins were ever really in doubt. New York won’t have one of their star defenders in Davis, but it doesn’t matter. This will be a slaughtering. The one concern I have is the wind. It looks like there will be quite a bit of it and that tends to make running up the score tougher. However New York is a very disciplined team with lots of good throwers. I think they’ll be okay, but there is backdoor cover risk.
All Matches are U.S Based, Enjoy
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