Week 7 Picks:
DC +4.5 -110 — The East Division leaders trade blows Friday night in a likely preview of the East Division Championship game. Both teams will be at near full-strength, with DC’s Kolick coming off injury and no Johnson, but otherwise sporting a loaded roster. Nissen made his 2022 debut last weekend after a runner-up finish at college nationals and fit right in on the DC offensive line, racking up four assists and three goals. They will need every piece they can get against the current Goliath of the league in the New York Empire. New York is 7-0 and has taken no prisoners in that time, with all of their last five games being blowouts of four or more goals (including three by double digits). New York casually signed the likely college player of the year in Randolph and an athletic veteran Mieser, both of whom made their season debuts last week and had immediate impacts (albeit against a young Toronto team). The previous meeting between DC and NY was a 3-goal NY win, and it’s likely to be a similar outcome this weekend. This is a series that typically goes down to the wire, with each of the six last meetings dating back to 2019 being decided by three or fewer goals. New York is 5-1 in those meetings, but some of those games could have gone the other way with a couple slightly different plays. +4.5 is too wide of a line for what should be a thrilling, tightly-contested match. In a way, the game being in New York kind of helps DC here, as road teams are apparently 33-31 in the season’s 64 games thus far. A sprinkle on the ML +450 isn’t the worst idea.
Madison +5.5 +140 — A surprisingly wide line for a series that has been competitive: In their five meetings across 2019 and 2021, Madison outright won twice and lost by margins of three, three, and five goals. Madison is a resilient team in spite of their roster regression and injury woes this year. They clawed back from multi-goal deficits against Indianapolis and Pittsburgh to beat both on the road. Chicago is a different beast than Indy and Pittsburgh, but certainly not untouchable, and won’t have two of their better players in Arters and Goff. Madison has had kind of a revolving door of a roster this season but should have plenty of experience this weekend to keep this competitive. I don’t expect Madison to win, but it would take a serious implosion for them to lose by 6+ goals, especially for a team as prideful as Madison.
Portland ML +115 vs LA — LA came to play last week, stunning Portland in Portland for one of the league’s biggest upsets this season. Granted, that was Portland’s second consecutive loss to a weaker team, so maybe Portland is a bit overhyped than where they should be, and maybe LA isn’t hyped enough. But in general there’s still too much of a talent gap between these two teams. It won’t be easy for Portland – they’ll miss three of their best players in Hayes, Hatchett, and Daniel Lee, the first two of whom they had in last week’s game against LA. They will get back Doi, though. LA won’t have two o-line starters in Miller and Osborne but should have pretty much everyone else. It’s hard to beat a good team more than once, let alone in back-to-back weeks. I think a motivated Portland squad will come out sharp and take care of business in LA.
Atlanta/Tampa o36.5 -130 — This is likely a reactionary line to Atlanta’s shoddy performance in Tampa last week. A close game won’t happen again as long as Atlanta has their key pieces. Atlanta should score 23-24+ goals here so Tampa only needs to reach 13-14 to hit the over, which is doable. This line was previously at 35.5 and it rose to 36.5 and really it should be upwards of like 39.5. There is a small chance of rain and Atlanta tends to run zone which can eat up clock, but frankly this is a pretty low line to hit.
Dallas +7.5 +130 — After being walloped by Carolina last weekend and losing by eight goals, Dallas now travels to Carolina looking for revenge in the AUDL Game of the Week. They’re not likely to find it. Carolina are the defending champs and were undefeated until losing to Austin in a controversial late no-call. Dallas is winless and is rumored to be experiencing internal roster issues over financial disputes. This weekend Dallas will be even thinner, missing their lead handlers in Zuraw and Malecek. All that said, this is a big line. Carolina won the previous meeting by eight but that was kind of a weird rain delay game in a quiet atmosphere and Carolina was bolstered by Team USA alternate Taylor (who they won’t have this weekend). According to the league roster notes, Carolina’s Gouchoe-Hanas is questionable after suffering an injury at practice. Given Carolina’s depth and the relative weakness of the opponent, I would expect him to sit out if the injury is anything more than trivial by game time. Gouchoe-Hanas is a primary offensive handler so it could be interesting to see how Carolina handles that. They are deep in offensive cutters and defensive line players but don’t have quite as many offensive handlers. Finally, this is just a one game weekend for Dallas. It’s rare for a team in the South division to fly but only play one game. That lets Dallas kind of focus everything they’ve got into this game. My expectation is Carolina wins but by 5-7 goals.
Montreal/Toronto o42.5 -120 — Pretty simple. Toronto sports one of the worst defenses in the league going up against a huck-heavy (ie. deep passes) Montreal team who are activating Team France’s Bonnaud (who also led the league in goals when he last played in 2019). Weather should be good. This should sail into the mid-to-high 40s.
All Matches are U.S Based, Enjoy
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