ATP World Tour
Men’s Tennis
Daniil Medvedev vs Andrey Rublev – 8pm GMT
Our Pick:
Medvedev 2-0 @6/4
These two had a titanic battle at this event last year, with Rublev triumphing 9-7 in a final-set tiebreak. Medvedev lost all three of his matches at the 2022 ATP Finals in a third-set tiebreak. However, he comes into this year’s edition after a much stronger season overall. The 2021 US Open champion also defeated Rublev relatively easily in straight sets in their previous two matches in 2023.
Rublev is still yet to make it past the quarterfinal of a Grand Slam, this season did see him win a first Masters 1000 title and play a lot of great tennis overall. Yet, he is still unlikely to win here. The memories of that epic win last year will help him mentally to some degree, which provides some hope. Nonetheless, Medvedev is likely to produce a much stronger performance this time. At his best, Medvedev is comfortable absorbing Rublev’s aggression in long rallies until his compatriot is eventually forced into making an error. That is likely to be a consistent pattern in this ATP Finals match.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev – 1.30pm GMT
Our Pick:
Zverev 2-1 @4/1
Both players have struggled by their standards in recent weeks. Zverev has lost four of his last eight matches since winning the Chengdu Open in September, while Alcaraz comes into the ATP Finals on the back of consecutive defeats. The head-to-head shows that Zverev is capable of troubling Alcaraz, although the Spaniard did win their previous two encounters very easily.
However, this event may be Zverev’s best chance of turning the tables on the two-time Grand Slam champion. Alcaraz struggles most at indoor tournaments and the German won the ATP Finals at the same venue in Turin two years ago, although he undoubtedly needs to raise his level to have a chance of repeating that achievement. Conditions at the ATP Finals can also help Zverev more in this matchup compared to the last two matches with Alcaraz. The court’s medium-speed and bounce gives the 26-year-old enough time to hit through the court and to not be overwhelmed by Alcaraz’s intensity on a fast court or get dragged into very long rallies on a slow court.
Alcaraz is capable of raising his level suddenly as he did at Wimbledon but there is a sense he may just be running out of steam after a long season. Zverev to cause an upset at the ATP Finals by edging this one.
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The 2023 ATP Finals is a men’s tennis tournament played on indoor hard courts at the Pala Alpitour in Turin, Italy, from 12 to 19 November 2023. It is the season-ending event for the highest-ranked singles players and doubles teams on the 2023 ATP Tour.
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